Published: 3 December 2025,07:28
Daily Market Analysis New
*AUD extended gains after RBA Governor Bullock’s hawkish testimony, which reinforced expectations that the central bank will hold rates and avoid any near-term dovish pivot.
*AUD/USD climbed to a three-week high near 0.6575, rallying despite softer-than-expected GDP data.
*Markets are prioritizing inflation vigilance over growth concerns, with the December 9 RBA meeting now the key catalyst to validate the currency’s bullish momentum.
The Australian dollar demonstrated notable resilience in recent sessions, extending its gains on Wednesday following hawkish commentary from Reserve Bank ofGovernor Michele Bullock. In testimony before a parliamentary economics committee, Bullock emphasized a continued cautious stance toward inflation, a signal that has meaningfully shifted market expectations ahead of the RBA’s December 9 policy meeting.
The governor’s remarks have bolstered the view that the central bank will maintain its restrictive stance, with markets now largely anticipating a hold in December. While the probability of a further rate hike remains low—priced at roughly 10%—the clear communication has effectively removed near-term expectations for a dovish pivot, providing sustained support for the currency.
This fundamental support propelled AUD/USD to a three-week high near 0.6575, a move that occurred despite the release of softer-than-expected GDP data. Australian economic growth printed at 2.1% for the quarter, marginally below the 2.2% consensus forecast. The currency’s ability to rally in the face of modest growth disappointment underscores the dominant influence of shifting RBA policy expectations over domestic activity data in the current environment.
The Aussie’s strength suggests markets are prioritizing inflation containment over growth concerns, aligning the currency’s trajectory with central bank rhetoric rather than coincident economic indicators. The December meeting now serves as the next critical validation point for this bullish narrative.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has extended its recent advance, reaching a three-week high and, more critically, achieving a decisive break above its primary downtrend resistance line. This bullish structural break invalidates the previous bearish pattern and establishes a new technical framework for further potential appreciation.
The sustained move above this key trendline resistance indicates a meaningful shift in market sentiment and momentum, transforming a prior level of selling pressure into a new foundation of support. This development suggests that the pair has transitioned from a corrective phase to a renewed bullish impulse.
Momentum indicators corroborate this constructive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is advancing toward overbought territory, reflecting strong and persistent buying interest. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintains its positive trajectory above the zero line, confirming that bullish momentum is well-supported.
Resistance Levels: 0.6585, 0.6620
Support Levels: 0.6555, 0.6510
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