Published: 9 December 2025,03:54
Daily Market Analysis New
*AUD extends rally: Aussie trades at a two-month high after gaining 3.5% in two weeks, supported by firm expectations of a hawkish RBA stance.
*RBA meeting in focus: Markets expect rates to hold at 4.35%, with forward guidance in the statement set to determine the next move for AUD.
*Key data ahead: Thursday’s employment report becomes the next major catalyst; strong labor figures could fuel further upside for the currency.
The Australian dollar continues to trade with a firm bullish bias, appreciating against most G7 peers and pushing AUD/USD to a two-month high following a gain of more than 3.5% over the past two weeks. This strength reflects market anticipation of a sustained hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The rally was initially catalyzed by commentary from RBA Governor Michele Bullock last week, who highlighted ongoing concerns over inflation while characterizing both labor market conditions and economic growth as being at optimal levels. Markets have interpreted this as signaling a prolonged period of restrictive policy.
Consequently, today’s RBA policy decision is widely expected to result in a hold at 4.35%, with the primary focus being on the tone of the accompanying statement. Any reaffirmation of a hawkish bias is likely to extend support for the currency.
Looking ahead, Thursday’s domestic employment report will serve as the next critical catalyst. A robust reading that reinforces the RBA’s assessment of tight labor conditions could provide further fundamental backing for the Australian dollar’s recent advance, potentially fueling another leg higher in the near term.
The EURAUD pair has confirmed a significant bearish technical signal with its decisive breakdown below a critical support level that had previously formed a triple-bottom pattern. This breach represents a substantial structural shift, indicating that the prolonged consolidation has resolved to the downside.
Following the breakdown, a minor technical rebound is now testing the pivotal 1.7600 level. This zone, representing the former support, is expected to act as formidable resistance. A clear rejection at this level would reinforce the newly established bearish bias and likely trigger the next leg lower in the downtrend.
Momentum indicators align with the negative outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining toward oversold territory, reflecting persistent selling pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to track below its zero line. This configuration confirms that bearish momentum remains the dominant near-term force.
The pair’s trajectory now hinges on its interaction with the 1.7600 resistance. A failure to reclaim this level would validate the breakdown and open a path toward lower support zones. Should the pair manage a sustained recovery above 1.7600, it would challenge the immediate bearish structure, though the overall momentum profile continues to favor the downside.
Resistance level: 1.7805, 1.8050
Support level: 1.7325, 1.7060
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