Gold Gains Momentum Amid Fed Easing Bets and Dollar Weakness

Key Takeaways:

*Investors are pricing in a December rate cut due to weaker U.S. macro data, pushing real yields lower and boosting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding safe-haven.

*A softer USD and declining Treasury yields provide additional support, keeping dip-buyers active and limiting corrective moves.

*Russia–Ukraine developments and broader global market fragility reinforce gold’s safe-haven demand, adding asymmetric upside potential.

Market Summary:

Gold has benefited from renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve is preparing to ease policy, as investors increasingly price in a December rate cut amid a run of softer U.S. macro data. Markets have shifted decisively toward a dovish stance, with weaker labour indicators, slowing consumer demand, and underwhelming housing data all reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy is losing momentum. This recalibration has pushed real yields lower, a key driver for non-yielding assets and strengthened the appeal of gold as both a macro hedge and a store of value.

That sentiment helped lift spot gold toward two-week highs earlier in the week, although the rally briefly paused as investors locked in short-term gains. Despite this modest pullback, the underlying tone remains constructive. The dollar continues to trade with a soft bias, Treasury yields are grinding lower, and broader uncertainty around U.S. economic resilience is encouraging renewed allocations into defensive commodities. Together, these forces provide a supportive foundation that keeps dip-buyers engaged and limits the depth of corrective moves.

Crucially, the bullish case is not driven solely by monetary expectations. Geopolitical risk remains a powerful tailwind. Developments surrounding the Russia–Ukraine situation—particularly renewed diplomatic activity and the risk of setbacks create asymmetrical volatility that tends to favour safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, fragility in global markets, from credit stress in parts of Asia to uneven growth in Europe, leaves investors attuned to any shock that could reignite flight-to-quality flows. Gold’s historical role as a stabiliser in periods of market turbulence continues to attract institutional hedging demand.

Looking ahead, the metal is likely to retain a bullish bias as long as the market narrative remains anchored in Fed easing and a gradually softening U.S. economy. However, the path is not without risks: any upside surprise in upcoming inflation prints, stronger-than-expected labour data, or a shift in Fed communication toward caution could complicate the easing story and cap further gains. For now, the balance of risks still leans supportive, but the next major catalysts—PCE inflation, ISM data, and December’s Fed meeting will determine whether gold extends its upward trajectory or consolidates at higher levels.

Technical Analysis 

GOLD, H4: 

Gold  is stabilizing on the chart after rebounding from the sharp decline triggered by the clear double-top reversal around the $4,350–$4,360 region. That rejection broke the market’s upward structure and forced a decisive move below the $4,220 support, leading to a prolonged bearish phase that extended into the $4,040 demand zone. Since reaching that low, the metal has been grinding higher, but the recovery has lacked conviction, as price continues to be capped beneath the $4,220 resistance is a level that previously acted as a structural pivot and now firmly limits upside momentum. Recent candles show narrowing ranges and reduced volatility, reflecting hesitation from buyers and a broader loss of directional energy.

Momentum indicators echo this indecision. The RSI is hovering around the mid-50s after failing to sustain a push above the 60–65 band, suggesting that bullish momentum exists but remains insufficient to drive a breakout. Meanwhile, the MACD has flattened, with the histogram fading and the signal lines beginning to converge, indicating that the recovery is losing strength. If buyers can break above $4,220 with a decisive impulsive move, the bullish structure would likely re-establish itself and open the path toward the $4,300 area. However, as long as price remains below that ceiling, the risk of renewed downside pressure persists.

Resistance Levels: 4220.00, 4370.00
Support Levels: 4040.00, 3925.00