Published: 27 November 2025,03:38
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Japanese Yen is displaying a fragmented performance, firming modestly against the U.S. dollar but weakening to multi-month lows versus most majors.
*Market expectations for BoJ normalization have surged, with an 80% probability now priced in for a 25 bp hike in December, driven by sticky inflation, solid wage growth, and improving global risk appetite.
*Verbal intervention continues to have limited impact, as GBPJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY hover near cycle highs. Markets appear to be waiting for concrete BoJ action or a broader risk-off shift before meaningfully reversing JPY weakness.
The Japanese Yen is exhibiting mixed performance across currency pairs, recording modest gains against the U.S. dollar while weakening to multi-month lows against several major counterparts. Most notably, NZDJPY has advanced to its highest level in 2025, approaching the psychologically significant 90.00 threshold amid sustained New Zealand dollar strength.
Market expectations for Bank of Japan policy normalization have intensified considerably, with pricing now indicating an 80% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the December meeting. This hawkish repricing stems from persistent inflationary pressures, robust wage growth data, and reduced global risk aversion—factors that collectively support the case for policy adjustment.
Tomorrow’s Tokyo Core CPI release represents the next critical catalyst for JPY direction. A reading that reinforces the hawkish BoJ narrative could provide the Yen with much-needed support, potentially tempering its current depreciation trend.
Despite escalating verbal intervention from Japanese authorities warning against excessive currency weakness, the Yen continues to face broad selling pressure. This is particularly evident in pairs such as GBPJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY, which all trade at elevated levels. The limited efficacy of intervention rhetoric suggests markets require more substantive catalysts—either concrete policy action from the BoJ or a shift in global risk sentiment—to reverse the current bearish JPY momentum. Traders should maintain cautious positioning given these conflicting dynamics, with particular attention to tomorrow’s inflation data for clearer directional signals.
USDJPY is approaching a significant technical inflection point as it tests the critical support zone near 155.70. While the pair maintains a broader bearish structure characterized by lower highs, this level has demonstrated notable resilience—forming a potential double-bottom pattern that could signal a base formation.
The current technical setup presents two distinct scenarios. A decisive break below 155.70 would confirm bearish momentum remains dominant, potentially triggering a decline toward the 154.50 support zone. Conversely, a successful defense of this level that leads to another rebound would establish a triple-bottom formation—a potentially powerful reversal pattern that could signal a bullish trend shift.
Momentum indicators reflect this equilibrium. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is consolidating near its mid-point, offering no clear directional bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is poised for a bearish crossover below its zero line. This configuration suggests bearish momentum persists but may be approaching exhaustion.
Traders should monitor the 155.70 level closely, as a decisive break in either direction will likely establish the next sustained move. The convergence of the double-bottom support with the broader downtrend creates a technical tension that should resolve with meaningful momentum in the coming sessions.
Resistance Levels: 157.95, 161.70
Support Levels: 154.00, 150.75
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