Nasdaq Hits All-Time High as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

 Key Takeaways:

*Nasdaq gathered momentum and reached an all-time high since February.

*The upward momentum was hindered by the expectations for a Fed rate cut.

Market Summary:

The tech-heavy Nasdaq surged to a record high yesterday, surpassing its February peak as investor sentiment rebounded on news of a truce between Israel and Iran announced by President Trump on Monday evening. The rally was reflected across Asian and European markets, with investors applauding the de-escalation in the Middle East. Closing up nearly 300 points, or 1.43%, the Nasdaq’s performance signals a robust bullish revival, with market participants eyeing the 23,000 level as the next major milestone if geopolitical stability persists.

In tandem, the market assessed a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored that there is no immediate need to cut rates, citing uncertainties stemming from Trump’s evolving trade policies and concerns over inflation. This cautious approach was supported by comments from other Fed officials, including the presidents of the Minneapolis and Cleveland Federal Reserve Banks, who stressed the need for further clarity on inflation and growth before considering policy easing.

While market expectations still hold out for a rate cut by September, the odds of a July cut have slightly risen. A near-term rate cut, if it materializes, could further propel the Nasdaq’s momentum alongside broader gains on Wall Street, as investors weigh reduced geopolitical risks against a steadfast Federal Reserve cautious on immediate monetary easing.

Technical Analysis 

Nasdaq, H4

The Nasdaq surged over 280 points in the last session, breaking out of a prolonged consolidation phase and surpassing the 22,000 mark. The index is now testing immediate resistance at 22,200, a critical level that could determine its next move.

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum vs. Potential Pullback

• MACD Divergence: Despite the new high, the MACD is trending lower, signaling weakening momentum and raising the risk of a short-term pullback.
• RSI Holds Bullish: The RSI remains above the mid-level (50), suggesting underlying bullish strength, but it is not yet overbought, leaving room for further upside.
• False Breakout Risk: If the index fails to hold above 22,200, a false breakout could occur, triggering a retracement toward 21,800–21,600 support.

Key Scenarios Ahead

-Bullish Continuation: A sustained break above 22,200 could propel the Nasdaq toward 23,000, especially if Fed rate cut expectations grow.

-Bearish Correction: If selling pressure intensifies near resistance, a pullback toward 21,500–21,800 may unfold before the next rally.

Bottom Line: While the Nasdaq’s breakout is encouraging, traders should watch 22,200 closely—holding above it confirms bullish momentum, while a rejection may lead to a short-term dip.

Resistance levels: 23,000.00, 23,615.00

Support levels: 21,000.00, 20,090.00