Chart the Market (14/07/2025)

BTC, H4: 

Bitcoin has extended its breakout rally, surging beyond the $116,800 mark and now hovering near the 1.272 Fibonacci extension around $121,525. This bullish continuation follows a clean break above the prior consolidation zone and reflects strong follow-through buying interest. Price is now entering a technically stretched zone, with resistance building around the $121,525 region, which may act as a short-term cap unless momentum accelerates further.

Momentum indicators, however, point to growing signs of exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 77, deep in overbought territory, signaling that the rally may be due for a pause or a healthy pullback. While RSI readings above 70 confirm bullish strength, sustained moves at these levels are rare without consolidation or correction. On the other hand, the MACD supports a more cautious outlook. Although still in positive territory, the MACD histogram has begun to taper off while the MACD line flattens near the signal line. This suggests bullish momentum is slowing, and any bearish crossover in the coming sessions could indicate a potential shift in near-term direction.

From a structural perspective, BTC/USD remains firmly bullish, but the rally is at risk of short-term overextension. Failure to clear the $121,525 zone convincingly could trigger consolidation or a pullback toward initial support around $116,788. A deeper correction could expose the $113,060 zone, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move.

Resistance Levels: 121,525.00, 127,552.00

Support Levels: 116,788.00, 113,060.00

XAUUSD,  H4

Gold (XAU/USD) has broken decisively higher, piercing through the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the prior downtrend and lifting above the key $3,360–$3,380 zone. This surge marks a clear shift in market sentiment, as price rebounds strongly from the July lows and breaks out of a falling wedge formation—a pattern often associated with bullish reversals. With volume accelerating alongside the breakout, the rally appears to be underpinned by solid participation rather than speculative noise.

Technically, the move is impressive. The recent breakout above the fair value gap signals a reclaiming of lost ground, with price now clearing structural resistance and eyeing the 78.6% Fib near $3,408. Momentum supports the bullish narrative: RSI has surged into overbought territory at 71, while MACD shows strong upward acceleration, with a widening gap between the MACD and signal lines. This combination often reflects sustained buying pressure and trend continuation. However, the overbought RSI does warrant some caution. While it confirms strong momentum, historically such readings often precede short-term consolidations or pullbacks, especially as price nears key resistance levels. 

For now, the path of least resistance appears to be higher. As long as XAU/USD holds above the $3,360 zone, the next upside targets lie at $3,407 (78.6% Fib). A failure to hold $3,360, however, would bring $3,340 and $3,328 into view as the first line of defense for bulls. The breakout structure remains intact—but with momentum stretched, traders should watch for signs of a near-term pause before further upside can be sustained.

Resistance Levels: 3380.00, 3407.00

Support Levels: 3360.00, 3340.00