Oil Prices Stabilize as Trade Optimism Grows, Sanction Risks Loom

Key Takeaways:

*Crude prices remained rangebound as fragile demand outweighed support from OPEC+’s plan to boost output by 548,000 bpd in September.

*New agreements with the UK, EU, and Japan eased trade war fears and improved sentiment for global oil demand.

*Trump’s threats of sanctions on India and renewed pressure on Russian exports revived supply disruption concerns, offering short-term support to crude.

Market Summary:

The U.S. dollar rallied sharply in the latest session after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, WTI crude remained rangebound below the $70.00 level despite OPEC+ reaffirming its plan to increase output by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The lack of upside momentum comes amid a fragile demand recovery. However, recent U.S. trade developments have provided a more constructive backdrop.

The U.S. has reached key trade agreements with major partners including the UK, EU, and Japan, easing fears of a global trade war and improving the demand outlook for crude. President Trump further bolstered sentiment by reiterating efforts to de-escalate geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, signaling plans to impose additional sanctions on Russian energy exports.

In a sharp warning to India, Trump threatened a 25% tariff in response to its continued purchases of Russian energy and military hardware. The President’s comments have sparked speculation that the White House may pursue a more aggressive sanctions regime, potentially disrupting global supply in the short term and supporting oil prices.

Technical Analysis 

USOIL H4

Oil prices have rallied sharply over the past three sessions, surging more than 8% to reach their highest level in July—hitting a key psychological threshold. The sharp rebound signals strong bullish momentum in the market.

However, with prices now nearing a critical resistance zone, the potential for a technical pullback cannot be ruled out. Momentum indicators remain supportive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, while the MACD continues to climb above the zero line—both reinforcing the view that bullish momentum remains intact for now.

Resistance Level: 72.88, 76.20

Support Levels: 67.55, 64.60