Published: 16 December 2025,06:21
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude prices pressured by signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks
*Potential return of Russian supply weighs on medium-term outlook
*Venezuela sanctions and export disruptions limit downside
Crude oil prices traded lower as markets digested signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, fueling expectations that Russian oil supplies could gradually return to global markets if a ceasefire agreement materializes. The prospect of additional supply has softened sentiment, particularly after months of disruption tied to sanctions and geopolitical risk premiums.
U.S. President Donald Trump said an agreement aimed at ending the war was “closer than ever,” citing progress made during recent talks in Berlin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held extended discussions with U.S. envoys over the weekend and signaled a willingness to reconsider Ukraine’s NATO ambitions, a move widely seen as a potential breakthrough in negotiations. A second round of talks concluded on Monday, with both sides describing the discussions as constructive.
Markets are increasingly focused on the implications for Russian energy exports, which have been constrained by sanctions and logistical barriers. Any normalization of trade flows could add meaningful supply to an already well-balanced market, weighing on prices.
However, losses in crude have been capped by fresh supply concerns elsewhere. Venezuela’s oil exports have fallen sharply after the U.S. seized a tanker last week and imposed new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels linked to the country’s oil trade. Reuters reported that Washington is considering intercepting additional ships carrying Venezuelan crude, intensifying pressure on President Nicolás Maduro.
Compounding the situation, Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA disclosed a cyberattack, while several tankers reportedly turned back from Venezuelan ports amid rising operational risks. These disruptions have tightened near-term supply and helped offset some of the bearish impact from Russia-Ukraine developments.
With geopolitical risks pulling prices in opposing directions, traders remain focused on headlines from peace negotiations in Europe and enforcement actions in Latin America. Until greater clarity emerges on the likelihood and timing of a ceasefire, oil markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply expectations continuing to drive price action.
Crude oil prices remain under pressure, continuing to trade within a downward channel, with the commodity currently testing the key support level at 56.45. This zone is pivotal for near-term direction.
A decisive break below 56.45 would signal a double breakdown—both a breach of horizontal support and confirmation of the bearish channel—likely triggering a fresh wave of selling. Should bearish momentum persist, prices could extend losses toward the next support at 55.20.
Momentum remains skewed to the downside, consistent with the broader bearish market structure. However, if the support at 56.45 holds and downside momentum fails to follow through, a technical rebound may unfold. In that scenario, crude could recover toward 58.35, with further upside potentially re-testing the upper boundary of the downward channel.
Traders are advised to closely monitor price action around the 56.45 support, as a confirmed breakout or rejection is likely to provide clearer short-term trading signals.
Resistance Levels: 58.35, 59.90
Support Levels: 56.45, 55.20
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