Chart the Market (18/08/2025)

BTC, H4: 

BTC/USD has broken below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $117,672, extending its downside momentum after failing to sustain above the $119,000 zone. The pair is now testing the $115,600 support region, with the next major downside target at $114,817. A decisive break lower could expose the $112,220 swing low, while the broader structure shows a shift in sentiment toward bearish pressure after repeated rejections from the $121,045 resistance area.

Momentum indicators are aligned with the bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 32, approaching oversold conditions and signaling strong selling momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has deepened into negative territory, with widening bearish momentum on the histogram, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside pressure in the near term.  

If BTC/USD stabilizes above $115,600 and reclaims the $117,672 Fibonacci level, it could open the door for a relief rebound toward $119,000 and $121,000. However, sustained weakness below $115,600 risks triggering a deeper correction, with $112,220 and $109,830 as the next critical support levels.

Overall, Bitcoin’s short-term technical outlook is tilted bearish, with momentum indicators confirming downside risks. Bulls will need to defend the $115,600–$114,800 region to avoid a steeper selloff, while a recovery back above $119,023 would be required to shift momentum back in their favor.

Resistance Levels:117,672.00, 121,045.00 

Support Levels: 114,817.00, 112,220.00

HK50,  H4

HK50 is consolidating just above the 25,162 support level after retreating from the recent high near 25,747. The index is currently trading around 25,297, with price action hovering between the 50- and 200-period moving averages. The 200-SMA near 25,103 remains an important dynamic support, while the 25,747 resistance stands as the key barrier that bulls must clear to re-establish upside momentum.

Momentum signals show a neutral-to-cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 53, recovering from its recent decline but still lacking strong bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has slipped into negative territory, with the histogram printing red bars, indicating fading buying pressure and the risk of further consolidation before a clearer directional move develops.

If HK50 breaks and holds above 25,409, the index could retest 25,747, with a decisive close above this level opening the path toward 26,000 psychological resistance. On the downside, a failure to sustain above 25,162 could invite renewed selling pressure, exposing the 24,287 support and, if broken, a deeper pullback toward 23,785.

Resistance Levels: 25,409.00, 25,747.50

Support Levels: 25,162.40, 24,727.40