Published: 12 December 2025,03:06
Daily Market Analysis New
*Copper is retesting record highs near $5.89/lb, rebounding strongly after an 18% July correction as tightening fundamentals drive renewed bullish momentum.
*Flooding and operational failures in South America—have removed ~500,000 tons from the market, worsening an already tight supply backdrop.
*Explosive demand from China’s stimulus, AI-related industrial build-out, and the global energy transition is pushing the market toward a deep structural deficit projected to exceed 1.1 million tons by 2029.
Copper prices are mounting a renewed assault on record levels, testing the $5.89 per pound mark after a volatile period that included an 18% correction in July 2025. The subsequent recovery and push toward prior highs underscore a market grappling with a potent convergence of acute supply constraints and explosive demand from global electrification and industrial policy.
The supply landscape has been severely disrupted. Cascading mining outages—driven by catastrophic flooding and operational failures in key South American producers—have removed an estimated 500,000 metric tons from the market this year. These disruptions exacerbate an already tight fundamental picture.
On the demand side, the drivers are multifaceted and powerful. Concurrent stimulus efforts in China, a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, and booming investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure are collectively fueling industrial activity. Critically, the energy transition remains a relentless source of demand, with electric vehicles, solar power, and grid modernization all being profoundly copper-intensive.
This imbalance is projected to intensify. Analysts forecast a market deficit of approximately 590,000 tons in 2026, escalating to a 1.1 million ton shortfall by 2029. This looming structural deficit suggests that the current price rally may be less a cyclical spike and more a sustained repricing of a critical industrial metal essential to the global economy’s decarbonization. The path forward points to continued volatility with a firm bullish underpinning, as physical scarcity contends with unwavering demand.
Technical Analysis
Copper prices have confirmed a decisive bullish shift, breaking conclusively above the key 5.2425 resistance level—a barrier that had previously formed a triple-top pattern. The breakout has triggered an advance of approximately 5%, establishing a new technical foundation for further gains. The metal is currently consolidating below the next significant resistance at 5.4985, following a minor retracement. A sustained break above this level would represent a solid bullish signal, likely accelerating upward momentum and opening a path toward higher resistance zones.
Momentum indicators align with the constructive price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded firmly above the 50 mid-line, indicating a resurgence of buying pressure. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bullish golden cross above its zero line and is trending higher, confirming that underlying momentum has turned positive.
The convergence of the triple-top breakout, the bullish alignment of momentum oscillators, and the successful hold above the former resistance-turned-support near 5.2425 presents a compelling technical case. While the overbought conditions near the 5.4985 resistance may invite further consolidation, the overall structure favors the bullish scenario. A confirmed daily close above 5.4985 would signal the next leg of the advance, whereas a rejection at this level could prolong the current pause within the broader uptrend.
Resistance level: 5.7865, 6.0215
Support level: 5.2425, 4.9795
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
