Published: 12 December 2025,02:59
Daily Market Analysis New
*Dollar Index drops to eight-week low following third straight Fed rate cut.
*Jobless claims rise sharply, raising concerns over U.S. labor-market momentum.
*Kevin Hassett emerges as top Fed chair contender, reinforcing dovish expectations.
* Gold breaks triple-top resistance, hitting one-month high amid dollar weakness.
The dollar extended its losses on Thursday, sliding to its weakest level in nearly two months as investors digested a mix of dovish Federal Reserve signals, soft U.S. economic data, and growing political pressure for more aggressive easing.
The Fed delivered its third consecutive quarter-point cut, while signaling a potential pause to monitor labor-market trends and inflation, which officials described as “somewhat elevated.” Nonetheless, market participants focused on the broader easing trajectory, with expectations for further cuts firmly priced in.
Adding to the dollar’s woes, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rose sharply to 236,000, well above the consensus of 220,000, sparking fresh concern over the resilience of the U.S. labor market. Investors noted that the spike reinforced the case for continued Fed accommodation in 2026.
Political developments also weighed on sentiment. President Donald Trump has long advocated for faster rate reductions, and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, a known dovish voice, is viewed as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Markets interpreted Hassett’s potential nomination as supportive of a more aggressive easing path.
Gold, meanwhile, capitalized on the dollar’s weakness, surging to a one-month high and decisively breaking a triple-top formation. The depreciation of the greenback, combined with growing expectations for Fed rate cuts, lifted demand for the dollar-denominated metal.Looking ahead, traders are eyeing the December 16 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release as a potential catalyst. A softer-than-expected jobs print could strengthen gold’s rally and keep the dollar under pressure, while a stronger outcome may temporarily cap gains in bullion and stabilize the greenback.
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4:
The dollar index continues to extend its losses after breaking below its upward trendline, confirming a shift in market structure. Currently, the index is testing the support level at 98.10. Market participants should monitor this level closely, as a decisive break below 98.10 would suggest further downside toward 97.55, reinforcing the bearish trend.
On the technical side, MACD shows diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI at 33 has entered oversold territory, indicating the potential for a short-term technical correction. If such a rebound occurs, the dollar index could attempt to reclaim resistance at 98.55, with further upside toward 99.05.
Resistance level: 98.55, 99.05
Support level: 98.10, 97.55
GOLD, H1:
Gold is trading higher following a decisive breakout above the key 4260.00 triple-top resistance, signaling renewed bullish momentum. If buyers maintain control, the metal could extend gains toward 4315.00, with 4365.00 as the next upside target.
Technical indicators show MACD signaling slowing bullish momentum and RSI at 70, approaching overbought conditions. This suggests that a short-term pullback to 4260.00 or the next support zone at 4215.00 is possible before the next leg upward develops.
Resistance Levels: 4315.00, 4365.00
Support Levels: 4215.00, 4180.00
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