Published: 8 December 2025,04:14
Daily Market Analysis New
*Supply Concerns & Geopolitics – Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in Ukraine are tightening near-term supply expectations, adding a geopolitical risk premium to Brent and WTI.
*Macro & Rate Expectations – Anticipation of a Fed rate cut is boosting risk-on sentiment, making oil attractive for non-USD holders and energy-linked investments.
Oil prices have seen modest upside pressure over the past few sessions, supported by a combination of supply concerns, geopolitical risks, and improving macro sentiment. Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in Ukraine have raised immediate worries about near-term refined-product availability, tightening supply expectations for both Brent and WTI. These developments have added a geopolitical risk premium, prompting buyers to step in despite some profit-taking in earlier sessions.
The broader macro backdrop is also supportive. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have fueled risk-on sentiment, strengthening commodities as a hedge against potential dollar weakness. Investors are increasingly factoring in lower U.S. interest rates, which tend to make oil more attractive for non-USD holders and energy-linked investments. Rising industrial demand in major economies, particularly China and the U.S., has also contributed to a firmer outlook, reinforcing medium-term bullish sentiment.
Technical flows and inventory data have further shaped near-term dynamics. Markets remain sensitive to weekly EIA and API inventory releases, which can trigger short-term volatility. Recent reports showing a draw in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories have supported prices, while the market remains watchful for signs of demand slowdown from slowing global growth or easing energy demand in seasonal transitions.
Looking ahead, oil’s trajectory will be influenced by geopolitical developments, global supply constraints, and demand signals from major economies. Any escalation in conflict involving key producers or disruptions to shipping lanes could inject fresh bullish momentum, while signs of slowing global demand, increasing OPEC+ production, or an unexpected dollar rebound could weigh on prices. Overall, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, with near-term price action likely to remain volatile around key supply and macroeconomic events.
Technical Analysis
USOIL on the chart shows a clear descending channel structure, with price consistently respecting both the upper and lower trendline boundaries for several weeks. Recently, price has broken above the channel’s upper boundary, signalling early signs of a potential bullish breakout and a shift in short-term momentum. The breakout occurs near the key horizontal level around $60.00–60.20, which has acted as both support and resistance multiple times. A sustained hold above this zone strengthens the case for a trend reversal.
The RSI currently sits at 63, showing bullish momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, which suggests further upside room. Meanwhile, MACD histogram bars have turned positive and the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum building. However, the breakout is still fresh, so a retest of the channel top or the $60 level could occur before a more committed climb. If bulls maintain control, the next resistance lies near $61.45. On the downside, a move back below $60 or a failed retest would indicate a false breakout, putting the price back inside the channel with downside targets toward $58.10.
Resistance Levels: 61.45, 65.00
Support Levels: 59.90, 58.00
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