USD/JPY slips as Trump’s Fed threats lift safe-haven yen

Key Takeaways:

*USD/JPY retreats as safe-haven demand boosts the yen.

*Trump threatens to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over Fed independence.

*Tariff and technology tensions weigh on market sentiment.

*Japanese yen is supported by domestic political stability and trade developments.

Market Summary:

The Japanese yen advanced against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as safe-haven demand strengthened after a series of threats from the U.S. President Donald Trump rattled markets. USD/JPY slipped as investors shifted into the yen amid heightened political and economic risks.

The greenback came under pressure after Trump posted a letter on social media announcing the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank’s board. The move, reported by Reuters, has fueled concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, with investors wary of increased political influence over U.S. monetary policy.

Adding to uncertainty, Trump threatened fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation for digital services taxes targeting U.S. tech companies, according to Bloomberg. Risk sentiment weakened further after Trump warned in an Oval Office meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung that the U.S. could impose a 200% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing restricts magnet exports amid tighter control of rare earth mining.

The yen also found support from domestic political stability after Japan secured a trade deal with the U.S. and announced plans to boost rice production, helping lift public approval for the government.

Looking ahead, market participants are expected to closely monitor the upcoming U.S. Core PCE Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — due later this week, for further trading signals. At the same time, the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, Fed independence, and interest rate expectations will remain key focal points for investors.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY, H4:

USD/JPY initially fell sharply but has since rebounded and is consolidating within a tight range, capped by resistance at 148.00 and supported at 146.65. The MACD is signaling diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI, currently at 51, has recovered from oversold territory and is hovering near the midline, indicating potential for further upside if momentum continues to build.

That said, fundamentals continue to lean in favor of a stronger Japanese yen, which could limit the likelihood of a decisive breakout. A confirmed move above the 148.00 resistance level would open the door for a retest of 149.45. Conversely, failure to break higher may see the pair retreat toward 146.65, with a further downside target at 144.40 if selling pressure intensifies.

Resistance Levels: 148.00, 149.45
Support Levels: 146.65, 144.40